At the handicappers' conference at Mandalay Bay, gambling figures Marc Lawrence, Wayne Root and Buzz Daly offered insights on how they are analyzing the upcoming football season:
Lawrence said he handicaps according to what's sometimes called a "technical" approach, relying on angles and systems, such as "Iowa State coach Dan McCarney is 18-6 against the spread when favored."
While his critics sometimes deride him as a "trend-vestite" for taking this tack, Lawrence said the key is to separate valuable angles from junk.
"I like to say that trends happen to individual teams (and so can often be disregarded) but angles or systems happen to all of the teams in a league," Lawrence said. "Plus, rosters are ever-changing. You can't get caught up in what the Giants did in 1990."
Believing that a good coach stamps his personality onto his team, Lawrence said he will be paying close attention to Bill Parcells and the Dallas Cowboys.
In coaching stints with the New York Giants, New England Patriots and New York Jets, Parcells took teams that were losers against the point spread and turned them into consistent winners against the spread (ATS).
Dallas is a 5-2 shot to win the NFC East and 15-1 to win the Super Bowl, according to odds at the Hard Rock.
Root said he'll likely be backing the Denver Broncos and Philadelphia Eagles this season.
"Year after year people make the same mistake: They bet on offense, because it's more exciting, it's more glamorous," Root said. "You've got to bet on defense.
"It's not as glamorous, but it gets the money."
Root thinks teams such as the Indianapolis Colts and Kansas City Chiefs, both of which have flashy offenses, will be overvalued in the betting line.
"In the NFC I like Philly," Root said. "Even though they are kind of glamorous, with (Donovan) McNabb at quarterback, I think Jim Johnson is the best defensive coordinator in football."
The Eagles are 6-1 to win the Super Bowl in Las Vegas sports books.
Daly said he also places an emphasis on defense, and thinks the Tennessee Titans will carry value against the spread.
And he expects rookie defensive end Travis LaBoy, who starred at the University of Hawaii, to make a surprising impact with Tennessee.
The Titans are 8-5 to win the AFC South (Indianapolis is a heavy favorite to win the division) and 8-1 to win the Super Bowl, according to odds at the Hard Rock.
Las Vegas Sun
Lawrence said he handicaps according to what's sometimes called a "technical" approach, relying on angles and systems, such as "Iowa State coach Dan McCarney is 18-6 against the spread when favored."
While his critics sometimes deride him as a "trend-vestite" for taking this tack, Lawrence said the key is to separate valuable angles from junk.
"I like to say that trends happen to individual teams (and so can often be disregarded) but angles or systems happen to all of the teams in a league," Lawrence said. "Plus, rosters are ever-changing. You can't get caught up in what the Giants did in 1990."
Believing that a good coach stamps his personality onto his team, Lawrence said he will be paying close attention to Bill Parcells and the Dallas Cowboys.
In coaching stints with the New York Giants, New England Patriots and New York Jets, Parcells took teams that were losers against the point spread and turned them into consistent winners against the spread (ATS).
Dallas is a 5-2 shot to win the NFC East and 15-1 to win the Super Bowl, according to odds at the Hard Rock.
Root said he'll likely be backing the Denver Broncos and Philadelphia Eagles this season.
"Year after year people make the same mistake: They bet on offense, because it's more exciting, it's more glamorous," Root said. "You've got to bet on defense.
"It's not as glamorous, but it gets the money."
Root thinks teams such as the Indianapolis Colts and Kansas City Chiefs, both of which have flashy offenses, will be overvalued in the betting line.
"In the NFC I like Philly," Root said. "Even though they are kind of glamorous, with (Donovan) McNabb at quarterback, I think Jim Johnson is the best defensive coordinator in football."
The Eagles are 6-1 to win the Super Bowl in Las Vegas sports books.
Daly said he also places an emphasis on defense, and thinks the Tennessee Titans will carry value against the spread.
And he expects rookie defensive end Travis LaBoy, who starred at the University of Hawaii, to make a surprising impact with Tennessee.
The Titans are 8-5 to win the AFC South (Indianapolis is a heavy favorite to win the division) and 8-1 to win the Super Bowl, according to odds at the Hard Rock.
Las Vegas Sun
